Somalia’s Government Transition Maintains the Status Quo
August 20, 2012
Today, the mandate for Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) expired, and parliament met for the first time to begin the
selection process for the country’s new president and speaker of
parliament.
Though the process to create a new government has been flawed,
the Obama Administration and the international community have hailed
this development as momentous progress. In reality, there is little
reason to celebrate, as the new government will likely mirror the
ineffective and corrupt TFG.
A Transition to a Transition
For more than 20 years, Somalia was without a legitimate
representative government. The TFG, appointed by the United Nations in a
process conducted in neighboring Kenya, lacked democratic legitimacy,
was notoriously corrupt, and achieved little in the way of peace and
stability.
The TFG was the 14th attempt to establish a permanent government
since 1991. This “transitional” government was charged with paving the
way toward a permanent government. The U.N. and a handful of TFG actors
created a “Roadmap” in September 2011, which mandated the formation of
an 885-member National Constituent Assembly (NCA), which then voted on a
draft constitution. Afterwards, a technical selection committee was
charged with choosing 275 members of the NCA to serve in the parliament.
The parliament was supposed to vote for a new president on the same day
the TFG’s mandate expires—today.
The process is undemocratic and a poor standard for future
governance. Neither the NCA, the parliament, nor the president are
elected by the Somali people. Somalia’s draft constitution was supposed
to be achieved through public consultations and a popular referendum as
mandated by the Transitional National Charter. Instead, it was voted on
by the NCA, not the Somali people. The NCA then had a week to review it
before approving it on August 1. Despite 96 percent of NCA members
voting in favor of the constitution, the process fell short of upholding
the openness and transparency called for in the national charter.
So far, the technical committee has selected only 225 members of
the parliament. This has not stopped the parliament from holding its
first session and starting the selection process for the president and
speaker. As a result, not only are members not selected by the Somali
people, but the members that will occupy the remaining seats will not be
able to vote for the next president and speaker.
Even when the parliamentary selection is complete, its membership
is likely to be similar to the former TFG’s representation, as the
process is being manipulated through corruption and intimidation.
Approximately 70 parliamentary nominees were automatically rejected by
the technical committee for past criminal activity. Last week, James
Swan, the Obama Administration’s representative for Somalia, reported
concerns of “inadequate representation of women and in some cases
reports of former warlords…being nominated by their communities.”
[1]
Flawed from the Start
The TFG’s inability to establish peace and stability stemmed from
its mismanagement, corruption, and outright criminality. According to a
recent U.N. report by the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, TFG
leaders were “reluctant to fulfill their transitional responsibilities
under the national charter and some have proven actively obstructive,
calling for a further extension of their term of office.”
[2] TFG President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed reneged on his promise to not seek re-election.
Furthermore, the report recognizes that the “prospects for
stabilization and effective governance have fallen to political and
commercial ‘elites’ who appropriate, privatize and criminalize the core
function of the Somali state.”
[3] According to a World Bank report in May 2012, nearly 68 percent of TFG revenues in 2009–2010 were unaccounted for.
[4] Additionally, Sharif used his authority to facilitate piracy, furnishing well-known criminals with diplomatic passports.
Although it is easy to blame this corruption on Somalia’s lack of
development and governance, the U.N. and other countries are complicit
in these problems. The international community believes that Somalia’s
chaotic state (e.g., terrorism) does not present the conditions that are
necessary to establish representative democracy, which would at least
have to account to the electorate for its deficiencies. Instead, the
U.N. and others hope to ease Somalia into a more democratic process in
the years ahead.
U.S. Interests
The Somali people have lost faith in transitional institutions,
they are fatigued by the desperate conditions they constantly suffer,
and they want their country run by Somalis rather than dictated by
international entities. The U.S. shares these concerns.
Somalia’s lack of governance has allowed terrorism and piracy to
proliferate. The U.S. and international partners have sought to combat
the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab and pirate gangs by supporting the
African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Somalia’s
National Security Force (NSF), and an international coalition of navies.
While AMISOM has pushed al-Shabaab from some of its strongholds and
piracy has decreased this year, these problems cannot be solved by
military means alone. A commitment to good governance and the rule of
law is crucial to future stability.
The U.S. is also one of the largest donors in humanitarian
assistance to the region. When famine struck the Horn of Africa last
summer, the U.S. was the single largest donor, committing over a billion
dollars to the relief process. However, the TFG blocked relief groups
and deliveries from starving populations, and the NSF often stole food
supplies and committed atrocities against the most vulnerable.
What the U.S. Should Do
Supporting the undemocratic TFG model merely prolongs the status
quo in Somalia. Somalia’s leadership should be responsible to the Somali
people, not the international community. Until the Somali government
has demonstrated a commitment to democracy, the Obama Administration
should do the following:
-
Withhold bilateral assistance to the new government. The
U.S. should not do anything that rewards Somalia’s poor governance.
Bilateral aid to Somalia’s next government, which will likely be
populated by the same professional criminals that dominated the TFG,
should be withheld. This includes aid to the NSF, whose soldiers are
infamous for their dubious loyalties and widespread abuse of the
civilian population. However, exceptions should be made in humanitarian
emergencies—but only when non-government entities are able to provide
the necessary services.
-
Continue to support AMISOM. U.S. support to AMISOM is
provided directly to the African governments participating in the
mission and should be continued. AMISOM is not the solution to the
crisis in Somalia, but it does stabilize territory that would otherwise
be in the hands of terrorists.
-
Recognize Somaliland’s provisional independence. Having
declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland proves that
democratic governance in Somalia is possible. Hargeisa’s connections to
Mogadishu are limited to the extent that the Somaliland government is
forced to deal with the effects of the TFG’s failures. Somaliland should
be rewarded for its commitment to democracy and not be held back by
Somalia’s incompetency.
Status Quo Under Another Name
Somalia’s new system of governance is set up for failure. The
process by which the government is created is inherently undemocratic,
yet the U.N. and other members of the international community expect the
system to evolve to representative democracy as conditions on the
ground improve. Additionally, one should never underestimate the ability
of Somali politicians to undermine democracy. Rather than achieving a
significant milestone for governance, Somalia is maintaining the status
quo under another name.
Morgan Lorraine Roach is a Research Associate in the Douglas
and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at
The Heritage Foundation.
Source: http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/08/somalia-s-government-transition-maintains-the-status-quo
